A real estate investor who made a fortune shorting subprime mortgages more than a decade ago told CNBC on Friday he believes the current housing market is in a bubble.
“There’s just so much money in corporate balance sheets … and people’s balance sheets and their bank accounts that it’s just driven prices of everything higher, but at some point, this has to stop,” Greene said.
Mortgage rates have been historically low, and the rise of remote work has given Americans greater flexibility in where they live. Home prices have been soaring as strong demand clashed with low supply.
Greene is not the first person to suggest the market is overheating, although his previous bet against the housing market in the mid-2000s makes his comments Friday notable. Recently, Google searches for “When is the housing market going to crash?” have spiked dramatically.
“When you see prices go up the way they’ve gone up, you have to ask yourself: Why did this happen?” Greene said, contending the robust monetary and fiscal policy response to the pandemic played a key role.
“My view is it happened 80% because of the extraordinary amount of liquidity in the economy, 20% because of fundamentals,” he said. The investor also pointed to rising costs for lumber, suggesting significant inflation will show up throughout various parts of the economy as it recovers from the crisis.
“I think we’re going to have inflation that no one … is forecasting whatsoever, and it’s going to have to lead to much higher interest rates and that is going to slow down all these markets,” Greene said.
Jeff GreeneCameron Costa | CNBC
Not everyone shares Greene’s view on the housing market being in a bubble, even if they believe real estate values may experience a brief correction.