One Number to Gauge Where the Economy Is Headed

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On Wednesday, the latest data on inflation did little to change that view. Consumer prices increased 0.5 percent from June to July, a slowdown from previous months, suggesting that the surging price gains seen earlier this year aren’t going to last.

“You just have a lot of sand in the gears that’s slowing or reducing the recovery momentum,” Mr. Ivascyn added, pointing to vaccine requirements at restaurants and other measures. “We believe a lot of that’s reflected in the recent pricing,” he said of the decline in yields.

Delta’s impact — which is far greater outside the United States — is also weighing on the global growth outlook. Resurgent rates of infection in Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam have prompted new restrictions, possibly setting back the recovery of the global supply chains.

“Setbacks in Asia could spill over to the U.S. at a time when supply chain disruptions are already the most severe and widespread in…

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