Here’s what just happened that triggers stock market drops 71% of the time, warns Credit Suisse

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Wall Street’s in an unusually bullish mood Tuesday morning.

Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion Advisor Solutions, argues the market has just notched two peaks. Last week, the Labor Department finally reported an ever-so-slight decline in inflation, as a measure of individual investor sentiment showed the greatest percent of individual investors that were bearish since 2009.

“If we have seen peak inflation and peak investor pessimism the path forward for the market should be much more constructive,” said Holland.

Not everyone’s convinced. Credit Suisse’s London-based global strategy team have been cautious on stocks since February — and they still are. They say recession risk remains very high and there isn’t upside on their fair value models. Importantly, the risk to corporate earnings remains high.

“Earnings revisions have started to fall and 71% of the time when this happens, markets…

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