Guest commentary: Real estate market ups and downs are a cycle | Opinion


Real estate is having a bit of a moment. It seems long overdue. The 2008 collapse, which devastated not only property values but almost every sector of the economy, still feels fresh, but that was over three presidential terms ago.

The Great Recession is etched in our memories, but it was not the first housing bubble. The conventional wisdom is that real estate tends to go through a regular cycle of appreciation and decline that lasts about 10 years.

Most analysts agree that the depth of the 2008 collapse was in part due to the length of the appreciation part of that cycle, which lasted 13 years. The first signs of trouble came in mid-2007 when mean and median prices started falling. With so many owners with sub-prime loans and high leverage second mortgages, there was no room for deflation before many owners were…

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