Goldman Sachs expects more China real estate defaults, switches to bear case

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Real estate and related industries account for more than a quarter of China’s economy, according to Moody’s estimates.

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BEIJING — Chinese real estate defaults have increased so much that Goldman Sachs analysts have shifted to their worst-case scenario for the riskiest part of the market.

Twenty-two China high-yield bond issuers, all related to the property sector, have either defaulted on their U.S. dollar-denominated bonds or deferred repayment with bond exchanges since the start of this year, analysts Kenneth Ho and Chakki Ting wrote in a report Friday.

“Given the pick up in stresses, we raise our FY22 China Property HY default rate forecast to 31.6% (from 19.0% previously), which was our previous bear case assumption,” the analysts said.

They also raised their estimate for the Asia high yield corporate default rate to 15.5%, up from 9.3% previously, since Chinese property dominates the category. The new forecast…

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