Global markets seem to be in a phase where they are starting to live separately from economic reports and indicators. Otherwise, it is hard to explain why markets remained under pressure yesterday, despite very positive news.
The International Monetary Fund raised its estimate for the GDP growth in 2022 from 4.4% to 4.9% after a 6% growth this year. Forecasts for this year were improved for the USA (from 6.4% to 7.0%), the Eurozone (from 4.4% to 4.6%), and the UK (from 5.3% to 7%). At the same time, China’s growth forecast has lowered from 8.4% to 8.1%, remaining at very high levels.
US house prices are going up at full speed, adding another 1.7% in May, according to FHFA estimates. Another well-respected survey, the Case-Shiller index, noted a 17% YoY increase in home prices in the largest US metropolitan areas, close to the record 17.1% achieved in 2004.
Along with house prices, consumer confidence is rising. The Conference…